New CDC data confirm that the Wuhan coronavirus poses almost zero death risk in people below the age of 50 (see details below). At the same time, these data also confirm the virus remains extremely dangerous to people over the age of 70, and the CDC estimates that 1 in 18 elderly people who contract the virus (i.e. are “infected”) end up being killed by it.
Meanwhile, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for people 50 – 69 years is 1 in 200, making it far deadlier than the seasonal flu for individuals in that group.
But for people aged 20 – 49 years, the IFR drops to just 1 in 5000. This means that for every 5,000 people who are infected within this age group, one fatality is expected.
Those below the age of 20 have an even lower fatality rate: About 1 in 33,000.
In summary, the risk of death from the coronavirus in people under the age of 50 is extremely small, and approaching zero.
These numbers are based on the CDC’s new data released at the following link, using “Scenario 5” which is labeled, “Current Best Estimate.”
CDC data confirm the danger to elderly people while simultaneously showing how little risk there is to younger Americans
What’s especially notable in these CDC data is how they simultaneously confirm three very important things:
1) Yes, the coronavirus was killing a very high percentage of infected people as it was sweeping through nursing homes where mostly elderly people were present. During its peak in early-to-mid April of this year, we calculated the virus was killing 1 in 10 people who showed symptoms. This is very similar to the CDC’s current data for the 70+ age group, where the virus is currently killing 1 in 18 people who are infected, while 40% of infections are asymptomatic. This means 10.8 people out of the 18 are symptomatic, which is nearly identical to our calculated number of 1 in 10. Notably, the early deaths in America were happening almost exclusively among the elderly, which is one reason why the death rate was initially so high…Read More